Maxaa la sameeyaa leh rubles? Maxaa la sameeyaa leh Ruble maanta? Ruble dhaco - waxa la sameeyo?

theme ee dayrta ee Ruble ee sannadihii la soo dhaafay arrin inta badan u kacda saxaafadda. Publications waa ka reer Falastiin qasan ( "Maxaa la sameeyaa leh rubles?"), Si ku filan dhamaystiran iyo gorfaynta kala duwan. article waxaa loogu talagalay si ay u bixiyaan duwidda nidaamsan ku saabsan mowduuca, oo ku salaysan publications heli karaa saxaafadda Ruush.

Ruble The Ruush waxaa sabab u ah istiraatijiyadda

Analytics - wax mararka qaarkood wada socda. Ready in ay ka jawaabaan su'aashan waa Gaarna Ruush, waxaa na soo wajahay nalalka kalimadaas chelna u ah, dhawaaqaysa afka ka soo baxa ... falanqeeye Western Chris Weafer. In aragtidiisa, la'aanta ah ee isbadal leh qaabka dhaqaalaha Ruush ayaa qaan iyo qaabka loo qaaday ilaa xad in 2014 waa in si ay u hirgeliyaan qiyaano: sidoo kale ay dhici doonto waqtigan, ama ma dhicin oo dhan (waayo, fikirka, 2016 - baarlamaanka doorashada ee 2018 - doorashada madaxweynaha).

Isla mar ahaantaana, sida saynisyahano odhan, waxaa in la xuso in dib u habaynta ku keeni doontaa oo kaliya in 2-3 sano.

Waa wareeg ah ka engine ka dhacsan ee koboca dhaqaalaha - dhaqaalaha ah khayraadka ku salaysan ballaaran - engine a aasaas cusub oo koboc dhaqaale. Mid ka mid ah qalab ka mid ah jaheeyo tani waa Ruble ah. Maxaa habboon in aan la qaban? Su'aashani waxay leedahay laba jawaabaha kale.

1. Jago taageerayaasha neoliberalism (sida matalo Bankiga Dhexe, wasaaradaha, oligarchy) waa la dhimay si dib u habaynta muddo-dheer iyo, sida, - olole caalami ah oo Ruble ee "go, a lahayn oo lacag la'aan ah".

2. Konserfatifka wakiil ciidamada ammaanka, xafiisyada, walaac gobolka, u muuqdaan in ay si adag hor joogsada isbedel.

Fariinta ugu weyn ee bilowga dib u habaynta ku ahaa xaqiijinta iyo kuwa dadka kale iyo in yar tiimbanaynay oon waxay fadhiyeen meel halis u ahayn dib u dhiska. In la abuuro a ilaha maalgashi Ruush loo baahan yahay laba shuruudo: qiimaha saliidda sare iyo Ruble raqiis ah. Sidaas daraaddeed, waxaan la siiyey amarka: "! Forward"

suufka bilaabay dhaqaalaha Ruush

Dhab ahaantii, xaaladda dhaqaale ee dalka ayaa lagu qiyaasay bilowgii. Horumarinta dhaqaalaha ka qayb qaatay xasiloonida toban sano ah Ruble ah. suuq Russia ayaa racfaan inay maal-gaarka ah. Uruuriyeen ah kayd caalami oo cajiib ah - $ 500 billion.

Ruble Ruush mustaqbalka sugnaaday function dhamaystiran - lacagta hal waayo, dhammaan dalalka Midowga Customs ah.

siyaasadda Bangiga Dhexe Ruble

Farriinta aasaasiga ah ee doodeenu waa in ay siyaasadda ee Bangiga Dhexe - jirka gobolka abaabulka ee wareegga iyo saamaynaya koorsada of lacagaha qaranka iyo kuwa kale. Madaxa bangiga ugu weyn ee Russia Elvira Nabiullina ayaa si joogta ah ka hadlay sida dhibcaha ugu weyn.

Iyagu waxay fiiriyeen iyada oo aragtida rasmiga ah ee howlgalka of Russia ee lacagta qaranka Dhalanteed ah, ha ku lifaaqan maamul ahaan in qiimaha doolarka iyo lacagta euro. On su'aasha ah: "Waxa la sameeyo leh rubles," madaxa Bangiga Dhexe jawaabayaa in soo socota, iyadoo la isticmaalayo lacagta jaban, si loo xoojiyo dhaqaalaha, iyo in, markeeda, xoogayn doonaa Ruble ah.

siyaasadda sarrifka cusub ee Bankiga Dhexe

Aasaas ahaan aragti cusub oo ku saabsan howlgalka lacagta qaranka bixiyey "The tilmaamaha ugu weyn ee siyaasadda lacagta ka 2014 si ay u 2016.". Qoraalkan waxa ku cadaato iyo nidaam siyaasadda Bank of Russia ka bar-sarrifka Ruble in ay bar-bararka. Waxaa la qorsheeyey in 2015 inuu u dhaqaaqo farsamo si buuxda sabayn xeerka lacagta qaranka. By fulinta barnaamijka kor ku xusan, in January 1914 Bankiga Dhexe ayaa joojiyay qabashada sarifka lacagaha qalaad si ay u ilaaliyaan heerka sarrifka, siday u kala horreeyaan, Ruble uu hoos u dhaco. Maxaa dhacaya haddii tilmaamayaasha dhaqaalaha ee wadamada aagga euro waqti isku mid ah ayaa muujinaya wanaagsan? Russia waa in la hayo ay istaraatijiyad.

The view rasmi ah: sababaha hoos u dhaca Ruble ah

dhicidda madaxa arrinta Ruble oo ka mid ah Bank of Russia baaqaysaa ujeeddo qiimeeyo: ma aha Ruble ku dhacay, oo wuxuu u xoogaystay doolarka iyo lacagta euro. Sida aad ogtahay, bilowgii geedi socodka dhigay iibka hoos hantida of Reserve System Federaalka ah ee Maraykanka sida ay fikirka ah "ahee taranta" - ilaa 65 bilyan oo doolar bil ah ..

Tan iyo dhamaadkii 2012 ugu dambeyntii diyaariyey qaybin xarumaha horumarinta caalamiga ah. The matoorada waaweyn ee koboca dhaqaalaha ahaayeen Maraykanka iyo Europe. Dhaqaalaha Ruush, iyo sidoo kale wadamada Asia in 2013 muujiyeen badnaanta fadhiidka ah. Macnaha isku dhaco iyo ariinta ka mid ah Shiinaha.

Elvira Nabiullina, factor muhiim u ah koritaanka lacagta qaranka arkay kicintii horumarinta dhaqaalaha. Waxaa tilmaamay in marsiin dhaqaale la taaban karo si aad u daaweyso xaaladda: ku badan yihiin ee Ruush badan laga keeno ay dhoofinta. Dawladdu waxay go'aan ka waxa la sameeyo leh rubles, in hab buuggan, ujeeddo leedahay xaaladda.

In muddo gaaban habkani go'aamin doona faa'iidada ah ee dhoofinta sii kordhaysa ee alaabta ceeriin. Laakiin muddo dheer ka Ruble waa in "tiirsan" on dhaqdhaqaaqa dhaqaale ee kale, qaybaha non-weyn ee dhaqaalaha Ruush.

Sida laga soo xigtay kuwa baangiga jooga Ruush (Anton Mukhin, finsovetnik laan Irkutsk ee BCS Premier Irkutsk) cadaadiska ka hawlgala on Ruble waa kuteen. Its koritaanka muddo dheer waa in ay gacan ka aragti wanaagsan for dhoofinta saliidda iyo "keydadka loogu talo dagaaleed ah" ee Bankiga Dhexe. Banker hubaal, gobolka istaraatijiyad dhaqaale u hubaa sida marxalad gaar ah in Ruble ku dhacay. Waxa la sameeyo - waan arki doonaa ku saabsan tallaabooyinka xiga ee Bankiga Dhexe.

hoos u dhaca ku meel gaadhka ah ee barashada cilmiga xaqiijiyay sameeyay falanqeeyayaasha bangiga America_Merrill_Lynch ag Qaabaynta dhaqaalaha go'aamisay in quarter labaad iyo afraad ee sanadkan, qiimaha saliidda Ruush kici doonaa.

The Ruble iyo ciyaartoyda ee suuqa Ruush

Isla mar ahaantaana, madaxa Bangiga Dhexe wada yeedhi dhamaan ciyaartoyda ee suuqa Ruush iyo guud looga qabto dhibaatada ah dayrta ee Ruble ah. Waxay dib u soo celin in bangiga dhexe - ma hoos kaliya ee suuqa sarrifka lacagaha qalaad ee. Its function - baxday si ay u qiimeeyaan iyo isbedbedelka muddada gaaban ee lacagta qaranka macaamiloon, oon ku dayactirka xaalad deggan ganacsiga.

Warku muddada-dheer ee hoos u dhaca qiimaha, sida ka muuqata Elvira Nabiullina, waxa uu la xidhiidhaa saameyn dhismaha dhaqaalaha dhoofinta-oriented alaabta ceeriin ah. Taasi waa jawaabta caqabad ku ah waqti :. "Maxaa la sameeyaa leh Ruble ah" waxa uu la xidhiidhaa a reboot xagjirka ah dhismaha dhaqaalaha oo dhan in dhismaha.

About istaraatijiyad ganacsiga iyo qoysaska la Ruble a dhacaya

Waa wax iska cad in Ruble ka itaalka daran waa lever mid awood leh dalka dhoofinta-u janjeedha, ay ujeedo - si ay u taageeraan ay soo saare. Sidaas ayaa sheegay in Evgeny Bolotin, guddoomiyaha Urals Bank Midowga. Wuxu qabaa, in go'aanka dabcan kale (toosin / ma beddelo) waa wax iska cad, koritaanka u baahan warshadaha iyo bixinta cashuurta, la socda dayrta maamusho ee Ruble ah. Maxaa dhacaya haddii waqti isku mid ah uu aad qaali u keeno? Beddel ay wax soo saarka Ruush.

Haddaba booska uu ka ganacsatada suuqa securities. Dhinaca mid, sida soo jeediyay by Radik Akhmetshin, Director of ganacsatada Suuqa Stock Association Urals fursad u helaan inay aasaaska kobaca mustaqbalka by iibsato saamiga qiimaha dhacaya. Indeed, in koorsada ee ay mustaqbalka sida xaqiiqada ah kori doono. Recently, ayaa sheegay in iyo Wasiirka Maaliyadda Ruush Anton Siluanov. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, dhaqaaleyahannada keentay Russia ayaa la filayaa qiima joogto ah lacagaha qaranka ee 2014 ilaa 20%.

Dhinaca kale, ka dhicin cadaadiska Ruble on suuqa saamiyada ee Russia ka, dhab ahaantii - kaliya erayada. Sida xaqiiqda ah, si kastaba ha ahaatee, sababtoo ah inta badan ciyaartoydiisa - non-degan, qiimaha stock dhici arrinta, maal-gashadayaasha ajnabiga ah ayaa lagu qasbay in ay "ula wareegaan".

Ruble dhaco - waxa la sameeyo? 2014, xaqiiqooyin

Sidee dadka Ruush dayrta ee Ruble ah? Su'aashani waa bartay Vladimir Zotov (Directorate of balan kalluun / hay'adaha iyo bangiga maalgashiga ee Ural ah). Sida laga soo xigtay waxay tusaysa, si cad u kordhay baahida loo qabo lacag caddaan ah, oo isku mar loo qaaday qayb yar oo ka deebaajiga. Against asalka this, waxaa caadi u ah in aan ku wareejin ah kayd Ruble in dollars ama evrovye. Sida sawir ah ee kor ku xusan, waxa uu ka dhawaajiyay ee tirakoobka soo socda: haddii kayd Ruble Ruush ah dadweynaha ku saabsan 16.3 trillion waa. rubles, lacagta, tarjumay heerka sarrifka ee Bangiga Dhexe ee rubles, -. kaliya 3.3 trillion. mari., ama 20%.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, Russia soo maray oo ka badbaaday in ka badan dhibaato, weli weydiisaa su'aasha ah: "Ruble The dhaco - waxa la sameeyo?" Jawaabtu waa dhaqanka: waa in ay ballaadhiyaan lacagaha ay. Waxaa macquul ah, tusaale ahaan, istaraatijiyad soo socda: nus ka mid ah lacag la dul dhigo deebaajiga Ruble, mid ka mid ah afar meelood ka hartay - in deposit dollar, oo ka dhiman - in evrovy.

booska uu ka muwaadin celceliska

Heshii, mar hore ayaa maanta u muuqdaan "dhibaato" doqonimo isku wadanka yihiin si joogto ah Mota dibadda si ay u sii adkeeyo iibsadaan dejinta isla, kaas oo ay u qaban karaa in Russia, laakiin qiimaha wanaagsan. Waxay, aad u ogaato, dhaceen awoodda wax iibsiga marka diinta rubles.

Muwaadiniin badan oo ka mid ah gobolka, in la barbardhigo kuwii hore ka, la'aanta ah ee barkinta badbaadada dhaqaalaha. Dadkaas iyaga ah ee khuseeya waa dhibaato kale - waxa la sameeyo leh Ruble maanta? Mabda ', lacag gaadhaya 30 kun. Xoq. wuxuu kaa badbaaadin karaa lacag caddaan ah guriga.

Haddaba ka fiirsada xaaladda halkaas oo lacag laga heli karaa muwaadiniinta weli la heli karo. qaada kayd Ruble ka bangiga waa in aanay noqon. Sida ku cad qodobada heshiiska deebaajiga, waxa uu gabagabeeyo ka hor mar, macmiilka bangiga ma kasban xiiso. Tani waxay kordhin doontaa oo keliya gacmaha iyaga u gaar ah oo ay la haybsooco u gaar ah.

Haddii aad mar walba rabay in la iibsado baabuur laga keeno, waayo, waxaad tahay su'aal gaar ahaan muhiim ah: "Waxa la sameeyo leh Ruble maanta" Jawaabta su'aashan waa kooban: "iibso!" Indeed, dayrta dheeraad ah lacagaha qaranka go'aamin doona kaca ee kharashka riyooyinkiinna aad.

Talinayo - laguma talinayo

Haddii aad isku ururiso talo khabiir in muwaadiniinta la shaqayn jiray, si ay u muujiyaan ka badan si ay u abuuraan naftooda margin ah ammaanka ee dayrta ee lacagaha qaranka, markaas oo dhan waa la dhimi doonaa si ay u laba waxyaabaha aad u fudud.

Midkii kowaad wuxuu u laguma talinayo in ay maal lacagta illiquid. Tusaale ahaan, dakhliga ka soo hantida maguurtada ah ayaa suuragal ah keliya dura weyn oo waqti. Waxaa intaa dheer, iyada oo sicir-bararka, mabda ', waxaa laguma talinayo in la iibiyo hantida. In dhibaato, isbedbeddelka lacagtii u baahan maloprognozirovana.

Oo weliba, waxa la sameeyo la qiima ah Ruble ah? booska labaad waxay muujinaysaa in goobta lagu talinayaa in lacagta maalgashi ee dadka waa hantida dareere: kayd bangi, birta qaaliga ah, dagane-s by shirkadaha maalgashiga.

Oo sidee aan talo qarniyo jir ah ay horey u dhaqanka wanaagsan jir: Citizens baran doonaa si loo badbaadiyo, loo dhigo tobnaad bishiiba dakhliga ay maalin roobaadka!

Qaar ka mid ah xaaladaha Ruble dayrta

Caam ahaan, eeg "bedstvovaniya on camera" shirkadaha saliidda Ruush, qaylada loudest: "Gargaar! burburkii Ruble ah! Maxaa la sameeyaa? !! "Ka dib markii in yar oo ah barashada dhaqaalaha dadka u yaqaanna ee xaqiiqda ah in la qiimaha sii kordhaya ee shidaalka iyo dollar soo dhacaysa" cayriin-qalabka "dhicin nirvana, maxaa yeelay, dakhliga waxaa loo xisaabiyaa in lacagta qalaad, iyo kharashka (ee Vol. H. Oo canshuurta ) - in rubles. Going reconversion: dayrta ee Ruble uu noqdo dakhliga oligarchs.

Ka mid ah neproigravshih hubaal noqon "Surgutneftegaz" - dhismeedka qoto-ganacsiga, taas oo uu leeyahay dhab cajiib ah jagooyinka lacagta . $ 30 billion Note in lacagta, laakiin ka yar, isla "Lukoil" iyo "Rosneft". Waxay awoodi ma noqon doonto si loo kordhiyo faa'iidada sababta oo ah isagoo payables lacagta qalaad muddo gaaban (lacagta ay bixinta yeelan doonaan in ay soo iibsadaan oo ku saabsan heerka sicir bararka). dhoofisaa A ee hormuudka ka ah "Gazprom" u badan tahay inuu ka canshuuraha sii kordhaya "siyaasadeed" heli super-faa'iidada.

Agaasimaha hay'adda gorfaynta "Alpari" Alexander Razuvaev saadaaliyay in ay sabab u tahay of this qabatadu ay canshuur hadda u dhexeeya qiimaha saliidda (gaaska) iyo cashuur in rubles dakhliga ugu weyn ee adag saliidda iyo gaaska waxay noqon doontaa 862 billion. Rug. la dakhli dheeraad ah oo ka mid ah 682 billion. xoqin. In muddo gaaban, marka Ruble ka qiimo tirtay, waxa la sameeyo, garan saliidda ugu fiican.

gunaanad

Sayidka, Ruble daciif ah - ma aha sidaas u badan oo calaamad u ah dhibaatada, sida qalab dhaqaale oo gaar ah u ah horumarinta. Waxay kor u formation of "barkinta badbaadada" lacageed ah ee isbedel loo baahan yahay dhismaha dhaqaalaha.

Taas waxaa raacda in khayraadka maalgelinta gudaha Russia toos tiirsan haddii ay suurtogal noqon in la soo noqdaan "laga soo saaray caloosha" oligarchs faa'iidada xad-dhaaf ah ahbaa at Ruble soo dhacaysa. Dalku wuxuu u baahan yahay siyaasad warshadaha, gobolka-orod, maalgelinta beegsaday shirkadaha dadweynaha iyo xukuumadda, horumarka cusub ee warshadaha nukliyeerka ah, saliida iyo gaaska, warshadaha difaaca.