Maxaad saliid jaban? Saadaasha qiimaha saliidda

In dayrta ee 2014, dad badan oo dheeraad ah oo bilaabay inuu la yaabi ku saabsan sababta saliidda jaban. Laga bilaabo September 5 in qiimaha dhammaan noocyada shidaalka bilaabay inuu xadhig. Warku socota illaa maanta. Taariikhda waxay muujinaysaa in inta lagu jiro xilliga suuqa saliidda caalamiga ahaayeen shuruudaha lagama maarmaanka u ah koritaanka iyo hoos u dhaca qiimaha, oo ay ku jiraan kuwa la abuuray kiimikaysan. Dayrta 2014 aan hoos ma by mid ka mid ah dhacdooyinka taariikhiga ah.

Waa maxay macnaha sheekada?

Shaxda qiimaha saliidda waqti ka waqti si degdeg ah u dhaqaaqin oo isku jiho ah taariikhda oo dhan jiritaanka suuqa oo idil. Mid ka mid ah dhacdooyinka ka dhacay sanad ka hor inta uusan bilaaban dagaalkii Khaliijka. Inkasta oo qiimaha kaalinta saliidda ahaa kaliya 18,05 doolar. Intii lagu guda jiray dagaalka, qiimaha brand saliid "Brent" gaareen heerka $ 29, oo waxay ahaayeen at in waqti peak taariikhiga ah ee $ 41,5. Dhab ahaantii xiiso leh waa in maalin ka hor ka dillaacay ee colaadaha, iyo maalinta ku xigta ka dib markii dhamaadka rasmiga ah, qiimaha shidaalka waxa uu ahaa isku - si 19,93 doolar halkii foosto. Xaaladaha la mid ah ayaa ka dhacay muddada Revolution Islaamiga ah ee Iran inta lagu guda jiro dagaal Iran-Iraq, intii lagu jiray xiisadda dhaqaale ee Asian iyo inta lagu jiro dagaalka labaad ee Ciraaq. Bishii September 2014, ma yabooho dayrta ah oo waaaweyn. Sida sanad kasta, ku saabsan asalka ah ee August, qiimaha bishii September dhacay. Dhibic wuxuu ahaa mid aan la taaban karo, oo kaliya 4.5%.

hoos

dayrta ee 4.5% sii October, iyo su'aasha ku saabsan sababta maanta waa sii saliid jaban, oo haatan weli ku habboon. Marka dhexe ee dhaca ku yimid qiimaha saliidda ahaayeen heerka of 86.4 doolar halkii foosto, falanqeeyayaasha ayaa bilaabay inuu walwalo. Tan waxa u sabab xaqiiqada ah in dunida ma aha shuruudaha dhaqaale Jirin this ifafaale. dhaqaalaha ee dalalka dunida, inkasta oo ay ahayd in hoos u dhac, laakiin dhibaatooyinka musiibada ah ama wac waxa uu ahaa mid aad u dhibaato. hooseeyo, halka xad sare ee heerka qiimaha maanta la soo dhaafay waxaa laga soo qoray ee 2010 ka dib markii xiisadda 2008 sano. warbaahinta adduunka ayaa waxaa ay bilaabeen in ay si firfircoon uga dhigi sheegay in sababta keentay xaaladda khalkhalgelinta suuqa steel Maraykanka. Maxaa ku dhacay ahaantii, wax aan macquul aheyn in ay si sax ah ku odhan, laakiin dhaqaaleyahannada kala saaro qodobo muhiim ah badan ama dhacdooyinka.

afgambi Shale

tiro ka mid ah khubarada adduunka ee arrin sheegay in saliid dhaco qiimaha sababta oo ah si taxadar leh qarinaayay qiimaha dhabta ah ee horumarka Shale saliid oo dalka Mareykanka ah. Qiimaha horumarinta kayd macdanta aad uga yar tahay waxa lagu dhawaaqay in ay dadweynaha. Shirka Geneva, wakiillo ka mid ah shirkadaha waaweyn ee shidaalka sida Morgan Stanley, Eagle Ford iyo Barclays Plc., Ayaa sheegay in kharashka wax soo saarka shidaalka Shale kala duwanaan karaa 30 ilaa 60 doolar halkii foosto. Tani waxay muujinaysaa in qiimaha "dahabka madow" suuqa duniduna ma ay aad muhiim u yahay. Waxaa sidoo kale ka dhigay saadaasha in qiimaha hoos u October waa in ay soo afjaraan ugu dhakhsaha badan. Nasiib darro, saadaasha qiimaha saliidda u iman run.

Khalkhalgelinta OPEC

Arrinta labaad, taas oo keentay in walaac su'aasha ah sababta jaban saliid ku saabsan - midddani waa suuqa. In u tiro badan oo ku saabsan suuqa dunida tagaa "dahabka madow" ka Iran. Dhalmo ka Latin America iyo Africa waxay bilaabeen inay mashquulin share weyn ee suuqa. haynta Policy qiimaha saliidda by yaraynta mugga-soo-saarka ay ayaa si cad u diiday by wadamada OPEC. door weyn ee muuqaalka kore ee dalab weyn u ciyaaro cunaqabatayn in Midowga Yurub ay u qaadeen markab Iran NITC ugu weyn ee shirkadda. Midowga Yurub wuxuu si firfircoon u taageera Tehran, kaas oo sidoo kale waa mid ka mid ah alaab-qeybiyeyaasha oo waaweyn. Shidaal ayaa lagu saarayaa suuqa iyo soo saarayaasha Maraykanka. Si aad wax dheeraad ah, sannadihii la soo dhaafay waxa uu maal-xaddi badan oo hantida Mareykanka ee waaxda macdanta ee dalalka sida South Sudan, Chad, ee Equatorial Guinea iyo Mozambique.

dheecaan The oo saliid ah suuqa Maraykanka

khubaro badan ayaa la yaaban sababta saliidda jaban, sheeg keddibna caalamka America on suuqa Muga weyn ee shidaalka. Qayb ka mid ah kaydka qaranka waxaa loo qoondeeyay sale sababta oo ah horumarinta Shale kharash yar. Ka dib markii America ayaa billaabeen inay iib ah Kanada, oo waxay bilaabeen inay u dagaalamaan hantida ay Arctic ah, sida isagoo horumarinta dhulalka bilaabay. Waa in la yiri ku saabsan diyaarinta doorashada ee Madaxweyne Obama ee 2017, taas oo ay go'aamiso in ay siyaasadda la xiriira suuqa saliidda caalamiga ah.

saadaasha khalad

Maanta, saliid lagu dhibciyo in qiimaha, iyo sababta in dhexe ee dayrta 2014, dilaaliinta badan ayaa la filayaa inay dib u bilaabaan in sicirka saliidda ka dib markii dayrta. In ay saadaasha ah falanqeeyayaasha dunida waxaa ku eeliyey ka aragtiyaha dagaalada ahliga ah ee dunida Carabta iyo lumin. macluumaad been ah oo ku saabsan burburinta wadooyinka gaadiidka iyo goobaha wax soo saarka shidaalka ee dalalka Carabta ma ciyaaro gacmaha saarka galay. Halkii koritaanka filayo burburinta terminal ee Ciraaq iyo Liibiya ma dhicin. On lid ku ah, waxaa jira haatan keligay shaqeeya, laakiin laba xarunta dhoofinta. Dagaalka waa si dhib uma keeni doonto batroolka iyo gaaska.

Waxa uu si firfircoon ku raad xuquuqda iyo dhoofinta saliidda Kurdistan lagu qiyaasay $ 4 bilyan. Xudduudka iyo isku day si ay u joojiyaan channels sahayda Iran ku dhammaaday fashil ku. In xagaagii 2013 ayaa lagu dhawaaqey xukunka magaabo Arab midowga, kaas oo suuqa la qaadaa "Left" saliid. waxbarashada State oo kaliya shidan yihiin gaadiidka Yurub oo saliid ah semi-sharci iyo sharci-darro ah oo raqiis ah.

wadada Change

Shaxda qiimaha saliidda ku waddaa inay hoos u guuraan ay sabab u tahay isbedelka weyn ee waddooyinka bixinta ay. Weeraraan ciidamada Maraykanka ee Suuriya xoojiyey jihada Turkish ah oo laga dhoofiyo Ciraaq. Under cover of dagaalanka qoqobka burburinta maray ku saabsan 27 warshado sifeeya saliidda iyo warshadda Suuriya ugu weyn. Sidaas darteed, Suuriya ayaa ka tagay liiska qalabka ugu muhiimsan ee shidaalka ka soo Ciraaq. Its meel loo qaaday by dalalka soo saar badan sida Kurdistan iyo Turkey. logistics More wanaagsan kicin dhibicda qiimaha adduunka. sahayda Oil kasta oo ka mid ah dalalka Ciraaq iyo badh jeer kaydka dheeraad ah, taas oo ah Russia. Qiimaha saliidda Hoos sii wadi doonaan, maxaa yeelay tartan xooggan oo u dhexeeya wadamada ka. Qaadista siyaasadda qiimaha, qalabka waaweyn, gaar ahaan OPEC, dooni inuu ku hardiyi tartamayaasha.

Qilaafka u dhaxeeya America iyo Russia

khubaro badan ayaa isku dayay in uu sharaxo sababta Russia waa sii saliid jaban, xusuuso jir ah "dagaal qabow" wanaagsan u dhexeeya America iyo Russia. The cunaqabatayn ku soo rogeen ku salaysan ee isku dhacu military la Ukraine, ma ahaayeen ku filan oo awood badan iyo dhaqaalaha Ruush ayaa soo gaaray. Wararka la isla dhexmarayo ayaa soo jeedinaya in isku day ah in ay saameyn ku falalka dowladda Ruush by gacanta qiimaha saliidda dunida. Hoos u dhigidda kharashka shidaalka keenaysaa in hoos u dhac in dakhliga gobolka marka la eego dollar. Sidaas awgeed, Ruble ee doolarka jilciyaa. dhaqaalaha dalka ayaa noqonaya mid aan awoodin in ay taageero warshadda macdan qodista ee lacagta saxda ah. khilaaf ee malo tani tahay oo kaliya in ay dhibic ah ee qiimaha saliidda ay saameeyeen ma aha oo kaliya Ruush ah, laakiin sidoo kale Maraykanka, quruumihii kale oo badan.

arrimaha Secondary dhibic saliidda

Jadwalka qiimaha saliidda muujinaya isbeddel hoos u, ma aha oo kaliya iyada oo sababtu tahay khiyaano at jaleecada hore, arrimo dhaqaale. Direction xoojiyaan saamaynta sare oo badan:

• isbedelka cimilada ee dunida.
• Fududeeyay navigation helaan beeraha cusub Arctic.
• Xad-Fukushima syndrome ee waaxda tamarta. Suuqyada gaasta iyo saliidda aad ayuu u kordhay in muda.
• horumarinta firfircoon ee farsamooyinka soo kabashada saliid, search for Lahjadaha kale oo horumarineed beerta.

Maxaa dhacaya marka xiga?

opinion Khabiirada ah ee su'aasha ah sababta saliidda ka jaban, in yar ee u qalmay ay sabab u tahay xaaladda dhaqaale ee dunida iyo qeybinta firfircoon ee suuqa adduunka saliidda. Xaaladdan oo kale, inta badan ciyaartoyda diiradda saaray natiijo wanaagsan ee xaaladda. On arrintan, ka muujiyay ra'yi badan oo ka mid ah alaab-qeybiyeyaasha weyn ee alaabta. Iyada oo qiimaha shidaalka maanta, khubarada ayaa ku dhawaaqday qiyaastii $ 55:

• Si qiimaha ilaa $ 60 ayaa la dhigin falanqeeyayaasha dunida yaqaan, saliid iyo shirkadaha tashan, Khubarada ayaa leh.
• Maamulka Xogta Tamarta ee Maraykanka, bishii January ee loo yaqaan qiimaha shidaalka fiicnayn halkii foosto ee $ 58 doolar.
• Hay'adda "Ra'iisul", wareysanaya 150 falanqeeyayaasha, siinaysaa uu Saadaasha qiimaha saliidda. Waxay la saadaaliyo isbeddel ku qiimaha halkii foosto 50 doolar ilaa 80.
• Falanqeeyayaal shirkadda loo yaqaano "Goldman Sachs" joojiyay on saadaasha $ 50.
• Bank of America Merrill Lynch waxaa sharad qiimaha 40 doolar halkii foosto.
• Madaxweynaha Lukoil ka gaabsaday in qiimaha saliidda ee $ 60 halkii foosto.
• khubaro Morgan Stanley soo jeedinaynaa in ugu horreeyey - quarter labaad ee 2015 qiimaha saliidda lagu hayn doonaa $ 57. Xaaladdan oo kale, quarter saddexaad iyo kan afraad ee sannadka, sida uu sheegay wakiilkiisa shirkadda, ballan u kaca fiiqan in qiimaha alaabta batroolka qiimaha ah $ 70.
• bangiyada Swiss ayaa indhaha ku heysa xaaladda oo dhan rajo. Waxay aaminsan yihiin in qiimaha shidaalka dhigay at 70 - 85 doolar.

Inkastoo ay diidmada ah ee shirkado badan oo saliid badan oo dunida ku saabsan qorshaha iyo mashaariicda, ay filayo waa kuwo aad u rajo fiican. In kasta oo siyaasad adag oo ku saabsan qayb ka mid ah OPEC, tirada ugu badan ee khubarada yihiin dhiiran tahay in lagu fekero in ugu dhakhsaha badan xaaladda ku aadantahay suuqa dunida saliidda, iyo dhammaan khasaaraha ay galeen wadamada iyo shirkadaha shakhsiga labada awoodaan inay ka bogsadaan noqon doonaa. Dhanka kale, arrimuhu dhicidda, iyo sababta maanta saliid jaban, ninna ma fulin doonaa si ay u sharxaan.